The Limitation of Touching Just the Surface
Dry surface soil is normal due to direct air contact. The plant's roots, however, sit in the bottom third of the container, where water accumulates and stays moist longest.
The Wooden Skewer / Chopstick Technique
Insert an unvarnished wooden skewer deep into the root ball and leave it for 5 minutes. Pull it out and inspect: if it feels cool, dark, and damp, there is plenty of moisture deep down. If it comes out dry and clean like a cake tester, the core is dry.
Calibrating Pot Weight
Get used to picking up your pots right after watering (saturated weight) and right before watering (dry weight). Muscle memory will quickly tell you when the reservoir is truly depleted.